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In 2015 iron ore price war begins in earnest

Number of visits: Date:2015-1-24 15:49

Because of China's steel demand to keep pace with iron ore supply growth, in 2014, the iron ore "bear" crown commodities markets. Out of the end of the last few sessions, dalian iron ore futures, short rallies once let a person see the hope of ore prices, but only a few days back losses. As of January 22, dalian iron ore main futures contract price closed at 487 yuan/ton.
Analysts believe that interviewed by the China securities journal reporter in 2015 is a year to continue the industry reshuffle, the mainstream mines continue to exclude the process of medium and small mines, the global iron ore supply surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, probably from a seller's market into a buyer's market, and earnest ore price down, but if the Chinese economy, such as to maintain steady growth, the price still strong support.
Rebound "a flash in the pan"
Business clubs monitoring data show that as of January 22, price of pink of 62% Australian PB in 495.56 yuan/ton, the year the price fell 2.41%. 21 and 62% refers to the price is $66 / ton, the year fell by 8.01%, a record low again.
"Following during New Year's day in 2015 a small inventory demand prices edged up after the iron ore into the downlink channel again, a new slide has been carried out." Business club He Hangsheng analysts said, the current iron ore market oversupply situation still continues, and the buyer's market as the leading factor, ore prices will continue to fall.
Platts index in 2014, the first day is $134.5 / ton, 2014 at the end of the year has dropped to near $70 a tonne, fell by nearly 50%, the amplitude of even the most pessimistic in the industry at the beginning of this year is hard to predict.
The excess supply situation did not change
Level, from the * * * * * * * * * * * *, according to China's iron ore imports in December 2014, a high level of 86.85 million tons, the annual import 933 million tons, up 13.74% from a year earlier, hit a record high. The personage inside course of study says, the import supply pressure is bigger, the ore price form bearish.
Futures, a senior analyst at guotai junan securities, said in 2015 is a year to continue the industry reshuffle, small and medium-sized ore traders will exit the market gradually, domestic small and medium-sized mines is difficult to have substantial opportunities for rehabilitation, foreign non-mainstream mine's exit will continue, and at the same time, foreign mainstream mining expansion pace is still in an orderly way. Eventually industry adjustment as a result, the overall capacity release appear differentiation, mainstream mineral can increase as expected; Rather than mainstream domestic small and medium-sized mines the potential capacity of mining area and can drop than expected, the absolute value of the overall capacity release is still large, but with a drop in prices, the degree of excess production capacity will gradually below market expectations.
But also are good side. According to monitors, on December 26, 2014, 41 national port stocks there are still 100 million tons level, but in January 16, inventory levels have dropped to 98.91 million tons, while still in high level, but because the steel mill profits, leading to higher utilization (December 2014) has remained at more than 90% since the middle level, consumption of minerals is also big, the afternoon is expected to port stocks will fall further, to form good ore price.
Continues to see "China factor"
China is the largest importer of iron ore, is also the biggest consumer of iron ore.
On the davos world economic BBS, the concern about China's economic downturn, China's premier, li keqiang, firmly responded that China's economy is not a hard landing. And both capital markets and commodity markets, "China factor" plays an important role.
"Of the ore price fall this year mainly due to the beginning of the market potential for ore release expected due to increasing capacity, the actual production have been melted, a year end demand market no imagination of so bad, after all, ore supply increases, the inventory increase is not big, more truly, truly, the ore has been digested." Qiu-ping liu said.
, He Hangsheng said in the current domestic steel industry under the background of weaker demand growth is slow, production growth, and mines at home and abroad were under the strategy of cutting costs to ore prices, most of the high cost of mine will gradually be eliminated, then the ore price down war will officially started in 2015, and iron ore market from a seller's market into a buyer's market.
Nishimoto Shinkansen, a senior researcher at Qiu Yuecheng argues that the world in 2015 countries other than the Chinese crude steel and iron production to maintain basic level is difficult to grow in 2014, four new production will be the main digestive market in our country, and the domestic steel production base has reached the highest level, to demand a rise of space. He predicts that the operation of the imported iron ore price range in 2015 will drop to $60 - $90 per ton CIF (CIF, namely), the average price in the $75 / ton (CIF), domestic mine production will fall 6%.

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